Week 8: Christmas Special

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! Welcome to a special edition of Three in the Key Fantasy Basketball Pickups! As a gift to all my readers I've decided to add a keeper league recommendation for this post, it will be included at the end of the article. For those of you who haven't familiarized yourself with the rules and concept of the article, they are quite simple; 5 players, 1 for each NBA position, all must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. I'd also like to remind you all that your questions and comments are welcomed, and I look forward to answering all of them as quickly and effectively as I can.

The Holidays are upon us and Christmas is near but that doesn't mean that our fantasy teams don't deserve our undivided attention. It's time we gave our squads some gifts off the waiver wire that will help us win that fantasy title. Let's see who caught my eye this week!

Point Guard

Isaiah Thomas (PG) Yahoo Ownership 46%

Fitting that we would start our Christmas Special with the biblical name Isaiah. Unfortunately for most owners Isaiah Thomas did not start the year as most people (including I) had planned. But his early season woes can not be placed on him, but rather the ineptitude and incompetence of Keith Smart, Sacramento's head coach. The Kings are 9-18 and a large part of the blame can be put on Smart for removing Thomas from the starting lineup in favor off journeyman PG Aaron Brooks. Brooks, unlike Isaiah is a horrendous defender and is consistently lit up by the bigger bodied point guards. Thomas on the other hand, showed us last year what he was capable of doing when he received starting minutes. In 37 starts last year Thomas put up top 80 fantasy numbers, averaging 14.8 ppg, 5.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.6 3PT, while shooting 47.7% from the field, 40.6% beyond the arc, and 84.1% from the charity stripe. Outstanding numbers to say the least, but unfortuntaley from day one of this season, Smart has not given his superior PG the minutes he deserves and it has shown with his average minutes per game plummeting to 19:30 this season (with a couple of DNP-CD during the span). Evidently with such little playing time Thomas' stock has dropped considerably and has been putting up plus 200 value, yet it seems we have a happy ending to this tragic story. Over the past 2 weeks it seems that Smart is finally starting to learn that Brooks is not the answer and Thomas gives his team the best chance to win night in and night out. Thomas over the past two weeks has started to see 20+ minutes per game and in return has put up top 120 fantasy value, still not fantastic but definitely on the right track. Personally I believe that slowly but surely Thomas will begin to regian those minutes from inferior PG Aaron Brooks, and when he does the party will finally start. Maybe Smart gets fired and the process will happen a little quicker, but for now it's a slow but gradual pace. If you are an Aaron Brooks owner the time is especially now to cut the cord on that experiment and return to Thomas. Owners would be wise to jump on now before someone else grabs Thomas sooner and enjoys the top 80 numbers he can provide.

What can Brown do for you?

Shooting Guard

Shannon Brown is firing on all cylinders

Shannon Brown (SG) Yahoo Ownership 32%

It seems that there is finally some stability in Alvin Gentry's rotation, and Shannon Brown has benefited largely from it. Although Brown has been instilled as the starting SG since mid November, he hasn't started seeing 30+ until the month of December. Now that Gentry has finally cut out ineffective players like Wes Johnson and Michael Beasely entirely out of his rotation, plenty of minutes have freed up for Brown and he has certainly taken advantege of them. When you take a look at the numbers Brown has put up over the past 11 games, it's a shocker that he is still owned so very little in Yahoo leagues. In the month of December so far Brown has averaged a solid 33:30 mpg while putting up 15.0 ppg, 1.4 3PT, and 1.6 steals, while shooting 42.4% from the floor and 91.7% from the charity stripe, good enough for top 80 fantasy value. I mean there isn't much more of an argument I need to make, the numbers are there and he has produced them over an extended period of time. As long as Brown continues to receive starters' minutes I have no issue claiming that he will finish inside the top 90 in fantasy value. Owners would be wise to grab Brown immediately in favour of underwhelming shooting guards such as Randy Foye and Dorell Wright. Consider Brown a slightly lesser version of Marcus Thornton and enjoy the top 90 fantasy production from the Suns' scorer.

Small Forward

Matt Barnes (SF) Yahoo Ownership 24%

Let's go with a bit of a deeper league player and talk about Matt Barnes. The bad boy veteran has always been known as a solid defender and has had his share of suspensions and technical fouls. After making an intercity move from the Lakers to the Clippers, Barnes has seemed to have found some offensive game which is leading to solid fantasy production. Coming into the new year, Barnes is currently ranked as 61st best fantasy player this season so far, impressive to say the least. With the Clippers, Barnes has averaged a career high 25:30 mpg, 10.3 ppg, and 1.2 steals, while also averaging a solid 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 3PT. Along with the career high production Barnes is also shooting above his career average from the field (49.8%) and from the line (77.8%). It would be obvious to assume that regression will plague Barnes as the season resumes but I argue that his numbers will continue to hold due to three key reasons; Barnes is seeing career high minutes which has allowed for the increase in his fantasy production, he is playing in a system that encourages spread out offensive production not isolation, and he is playing alongside an elite PG in Chris Paul, who makes everyone around him better. In my opinion as long as Barnes remains a Clipper and he is seeing 25+ minutes there is no reason to think he can't put up top 70 fantasy production. Consider Barnes a slightly less version of Kawhi Leonard and add him in favour of other SF such as Tony Allen and Michael Beasley. If you need some cheap 3's and steals then Barnes is your man, go out and get him now.

Barnes is having a career year and it's time fantasy owners noticed

With Big Baby down Gustavo is in for a bigger role

Power Forward


Gustavo Ayon (PF,C) Yahoo Ownership 9%

Time to start talking about some big men, and Gustavo Ayon is certainly a big man. Standing at 6'10" tall and weighing in at 250 pounds the Mexican sophomore has finally been given his time to shine. When Big Baby Davis went down with a serious shoulder injury many were wondering who would benefit from the freed up minutes, would there be a time share of some sort? Over the past 2 games since Davis went down, it's clear that there is no time share, and that Ayon is now the new starting PF to own in Orlando. Ayon played 27 minutes off the bench in the first game, then started and played 37 minutes in the second game, clearly he is ahead of Andrew Nicholson and Kyle O'Quinn in the rotation. In his last game as a starter Ayon put up numbers that will he will more or less continue to produce for as long as Davis is out. Ayon dropped 9 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished out 3 assists while shooting 50% from the field and the charity stripe. Ayon will also continue to be a a solid option for blocks and will help you a bit in steals as long as he is starting for the Magic. His free throw and turnover numbers will hurt you a bit, but if your looking for a solid rebounder who can block and score a little than Ayon is your man. A fantastic short term rental option I have no problem in grabbing Ayon in favour of power forwards such as Ersan Ilyasova and Kris Humphries. Go out and grab Ayon now before Davis returns from his injury (he is scheduled to be out up to 4 to 6 weeks) and enjoy the solid numbers from the Mexican native.

Centre

Amir Johnson (PF,C) Yahoo Ownership 15%

Another week, another Raptor I'm fortunate enough to recommend. Last week Ed Davis was the flavour of the week, this time we have Amir Johnson. With severe injuries to both Andrea Bargnani and now to rookie centre Jonas Valanciunas frontcourt minutes have freed up in Toronto, and it has benefited Johnson immensely.  Over the past two weeks (the length of time Bargnani has been out) Johnson has put up top 40 fantasy production averaging 8.0 ppg, 6.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks while shooting 56.3% from the field and an incredible 92.3% from the charity stripe. The fantastic part about all this, is that he has put up these number while averaging just under 25:00 mpg, imagine what he can do with even more minutes. When Valanciunas went down early with his finger injury last game Johnson stepped right in and was given a fantastic 34:46 minutes, a trend that will surely continue with the Raptors thin frontcourt and Johnson's effective defense. Due to Johnson awesome percentages and solid peripheral stats he will soon become a hot commodity on everyone's waiver wire, jump on him now and beat the wave. Owners would be wise to pick up Johnson in favor of other centres such as Emeka Okafor and Elton Brand. Pick up Johnson now and enjoy the high level production from the underrated Raptor centre.

The gritty Raptor forward is getting starter minutes and is producing 

Keeper League Special

Andre Drummond (PF,C) Yahoo Ownership 21%


It's the time of the year unfortunately when many owners need to take a realistic look at their rosters and see where they stand, do they have a shot at a championship or even the playoffs? If the answer is no, then it's time for keeper league owners to rock and reload and grab some players that can have an impact on their roster next year and for many more seasons to come. My favourite keeper league option by far has to be Detroit Pistons forward Andre Drummond. Selected in the first round with the 9th overall pick (one pick after Toronto reached for Terrence Ross, the story of the Raptors franchise) from Connecticut, Drummond was a high profile player coming out of college but was believed by many analysts to be more of a project than an instant force in the NBA. Well Drummond has proved many wrong and in limited time this year has shown that he is a star in the making and an absolute beast on the glass and an elite option for blocks. His free throw shooting reminds a major project (40%) but he has surprised many with his high FG% (55.9%) and his solid basketball sense. The only thing that is holding back Drummond from being an immediate fantasy impact is the coaching staff in Detroit who chooses to give Jason Maxiell minutes over him. If and when Drummond starts to receive higher minutes there is no doubt in my mind that he will become and elite frontcourt option for fantasy squads. Perhaps it might not happen this year (I do hope that it does) but there is no doubt in my mind that by next season Drummond will be starting alongside teammate Greg Monroe and the two will be dominating plenty of NBA frontcourts for years to come. Go out and grab Drummond now if you are in deeper leagues or keeper leagues and enjoy the immense amount of potential he provides.

Andre the giant will be putting up some mammoth numbers in the near future

That's it for this week's edition of Three in the Key Fantasy Basketball Pickups, I leave you all with my misplay of the week. Since we talked about Gustavo Ayon, I found it obvious to post this hilarious video courtesy of the legend himself Will Ferrell. Enjoy and have a Merry Christmas everyone!!!