Sunday 9 December 2012

Week 6: December Blues

Hello everyone and welcome back to another edition of Three in the Key Fantasy Basketball Pickups! You know the rules, five players, five positions, all are owned under 50%. If you have any trade, pickups, or team rating questions or concerns feel free to ask them in the comment section. I'm always happy to help! Also I'd like to apologize for the multi week absence of the blog. Unfortunately being a student during exam period, time is limited and the blog tends to suffer but now that the holidays have come I've got plenty of time on my hands.

Now just because most of the hot pickups are gone and you feel like you're stuck in the december blues, remember there is always value to be found on the wire. Now let's see who caught my eye this week!


Point Guard

Jeremy Pargo (PG) Yahoo Ownership 13%

People may say I am a little late in recommending Jeremy Pargo and that the bandwagon has left too long ago to jump on, unfortunately unlike many fantasy writers I enjoy taking the wait and see approach rather than speculate and declare definitive statements. After Pargo shocked the basketball world by dropping 28 points with his first start, every fantasy writer including your mother was telling you to spend all your money and drop whoever you can in order to add Pargo.  Now that the storm has past and we have a greater sample size on what Pargo can do for us,  I think it's clear that we have a solid short term PG option, rather than the second coming of Magic Johnson. Although I wasn't very bullish on Pargo's original valued stock, I agree that his ownership level is too low and he has proven that he can provide late round value while starting for the Cavs. In the past 8 games filing in for Kyrie Irving, Pargo has averaged a very respectable 15.1 ppg, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 3PT during 33.6 mpg. Certainly numbers that stand out but are hindered unfortunately by the 3.0 turnovers he averages, and 38.9 FG%, and 70.8 FT%. So in conclusion Pargo is a mixed bag of goods, he provides the volume stats but with poor percentages. As long as Kyrie Irving is out (and reports say he is still a few week's away from returning to the court) I see no reason that Pargo won't continue to provide late round value, and perhaps can improve on his percentages a little. Owners would be wise to seek out the services of Pargo in favour of name's such as Isaiah Thomas and Mario Chalmers, but to temper expectations, and not break the bank for the short term fix.

Moderate Buy (12 team plus)

What can Pargo do for you?


Shooting Guard


Kyle Singler (SG,SF) Yahoo Ownership 20%

I must say I didn't think the day would come where I would be recommending Kyle Singler as a solid top 100 fantasy option in fantasy basketball. As much as I enjoyed watching him play for Duke and winning a national championship, I was skeptical in thinking that his skill set would translate into NBA success. As a Blue Devil, Kyle was a stat sheet filler putting up great value in both volume and percentage stats. In his nation championship winning season (his junior year) Singler averaged 17.7 ppg, 7.0 rbg, 1.0 steals,  and 2.4 assists while shooting 79.8% from the line and 41.5% from the field. Now after being selected in the second round by the Pistons and taking a year sabbatical from the NBA to play a season for Real Madrid, Singler fell off the fantasy map. Kyle began the season on the bench but since taking over the starting SG spot for the struggling Rodney Stuckey, he has done nothing but impress. In his 11 starts this season Singler has averaged a solid 12.0 ppg, 4.2 rbg, 1.3 3PT, and 0.7 steals, while shooting 50.5% from the field, 45.2 % from 3PT land (this will surely drop though), and 76.8 from the FT line. Singler is showing us that he can produce his across the board stat filling numbers with good percentages in the NBA. Although his rate of production is not like his college day's, as a starter Singler has been putting up top 70 value for his fantasy owner's, something that cannot be ignored. Owners were be wise to acquire the services of Singler in favour of overrated commodities such as Dorell Wright and Mike Dunleavy. Pick up the Singler now and enjoy the high level production for as long as he continues to receive  30+ minutes in the Detroit lineup.

Moderate Buy (12-14 team plus)

His numbers may be plain vanilla, but they can still help us


















Small Forward


Kawhi Leonard (SG,SF) Yahoo Ownership 45%

There isn't much of a case to be made as to why Leonard is owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. His recovery from right knee tendinitis is almost complete and there is specualtion he will return to the court this coming week. The number's speak for themselves, prior to the injury Kawhi was putting up top 50 fantasy value and was well on his way to a sophomore break out season. Prior to being shut down Leonard was averaging and incredible 2.0 steals per game, while also putting up 10.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.0 3PT, while shooting 49.3% from the field, and 94.1% from the FT line. Starting all 9 game he has played in this season, Leonard had carved himself a valuable roll in the San Antonio offense and averaged a respectable 28.4 mpg that has allowed him to put up solid number's for fantasy owners. Managers would be wise to to scout their waiver wire's and see if an impatient owner has foolishly cut bait with the former San Diego State player, and add his services immediately before it's too late. Owners should acquire the services of Kawhi Leonard in favour of underachieving commodities such as Ersan Ilyasova, and Eric Gordon. Grab Leonard now in anticipation of his near return and enjoy the top 50 fantasy value for the remainder of the season.

Strong Buy (12 team plus)


Let's not forget how strong Leonard started off the season
















Morris has surpassed Beasley and is thriving




Power Forward


Markieff Morris (PF) Yahoo Ownership 12%

I want to make one thing clear. I despise what Alvin Gentry has done to the Suns and our fantasy team's. Benching Gortat and Dragic for the likes of Jermaine O'Neal and Telfair is ridiculous and stupid and has shown with their current 7-15 record (while losing 7 in a row). While I believe (and hope) that Gentry will soon lose his job and things will return back to normal in Phoenix, as fantasy players we still have to analyze who Gentry is giving these extra minutes too. The answer to this question seems to be Markieff Morris. The former Kansas Jayhawk and current sophomore has found himself in the starting lineup replacing Michael Beasley, and is carving himself an every night 30 minute role. Morris has started the past 11 games and in the last three games has averaged more than 30 minute's per game. As a starter Morris has shown us that he is able to put up versatile numbers like he did in his Kansas days by averaging 11.2 ppg, 5.6 reb, 1.0 3PT (shooting 45 percent from beyond the arc), and 0.6 blk. While putting up solid stats Morris has been able to keep his percentages respectable by shooting 83.3 from the charity stripe and 49.5 from the field. As long as Morris isn't subjected to the idiotic wrath of Gentry I can see those number's grow and blossom with the increase in playing time. Perhaps not an immediate pickup in standard leagues those in keeper leagues should be very intrigued with the potential Morris provides now and for the future. Currently I would drop players such as Michael Beasley and Tristan Thompson in favour of Morris. Owners would be wise to hop aboard the Morris train now before his potential blossoms and it becomes too late.

Solid buy (12 to 14 team plus)


Centre


Kevin Seraphin (PF,C) Yahoo Ownership 30%

Vive la France! Seraphin is the first official frenchman to crack the blog and rightly so. There is no excuse for Seraphin to be owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, the early season slump and slow start is long gone and Seraphin has become a double double machine while receiving starter minutes. Perhaps it's because he plays for the Wizards, or maybe because he is coming off the bench now that has caused fantasy owners to ignore the services of Seraphin. In the past 9 games Seraphin has averaged over 28 minutes per game while both starting and coming off the bench, and has surpassed Emeka Okafor in the rotation and has held off the never healthy Nene. So far in the month of December, Seraphin has averaged an incredible 16.3 ppg, 7.3 rbs, and 1.3 blk, while shooting 60% from the field. While the shooting percentage will not remain so high, most of these numbers are not far off Seraphin's season average. He will hurt you in FT% (a career 67% shooter) but is a solid scorer and a great source of cheap blocks. Savy owners would be wise to claim the services of the frenchman now in favour of overrated commodities such as Spencer Hawes and Sam Dalembert. Think of Seraphin as a poor man's version of Kevin Garnett and enjoy the top 120 production for the remainder of the season.

Strong Buy (12 team plus)


This frenchman can most certainly ball







That's it for this week's edition of Three in the Key Fantasy Basketball Pickups, I leave you all with my misplay of the week. In light of Manny Pacquiao's crushing knockout defeat I decided to go retro and post the NBA's best fight in my opinion. Enjoy the never gets old classic...Malice at the Palace:













51 comments:

  1. hey should i drop blatche for leonard right now?

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  2. I'd say wait on the next report for Leonard and see what happens when Lopez comes back. I think Blatche might still have a serious roll in that lineup.

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  3. Which player can I get for Deng and/or Dwight? Someone who can make 3s but is also a good all around player. Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I mean Luol Deng is a good all round player who shoots threes. If you can take the hit in rebound and blocks try and go big and offer Dwight for someone like James Harden or Brandon Jennings.

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    2. How about Dwight for Mo Williams and Varejao?

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    3. who would you have to drop?

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    4. Rivers. It's a20 team H2H league btw

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    5. I like it. But you need to realize the health risks of both Varejao and Mo Williams. If they both stay healthy you win this deal in my opnion

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    6. Thanks, dude.

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  4. Would you trade chandler parsons and Stephen curry for al Jefferson and luol deng?

    He really wants parsons and I think he's riding off curry's recent 20/10 streak. The rest of his team looks like this:

    Mo Williams
    Javale McGee
    Shved
    Kobe
    Thad young
    Jameer Nelson
    Aminu
    Anthony Davis
    Jj hickson
    Jason Thompson
    Luol deng
    Al Jefferson
    Randy foye


    I have

    Love
    Curry
    Rubio
    Parsons
    Rondo
    Derrick Favors
    Kirilenko
    Lillard
    Vucevic
    Zach Randolph
    Lou Williams
    MKG
    Gary Neal

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    Replies
    1. This is a tricky trade because your giving up the best player in the deal so far. But your getting a safer floor and Deng has a higher upside than Parsons in my opinion. Your team looks comfortable in the PG department and a little weak when it comes to centre so I would absolutely make this deal. Remember Curry still has those ankles that never go away so your one injury away from loosing first round trade value. Jefferson and Deng are the answer here.

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    2. Would it be worth losing my decent positioning in treys though? Just picked up Danny Green over Gary Neal to add to that. Do you think there's a trade where I'd be able to pick up Kobe?

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    3. Im assuming this is a roto league than. It's a tough call maybe just staying the course could be your best bet. On pure value terms i prefer the jefferson and deng side but if you have specific stat needs than Im not sure which deal is right for you.

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  5. Would you choose Carl Landry or DeAndre Jordan?

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  6. It depends on your needs but personally i'd go Jordan. There is still hope he can turn it around, his upside is higher and he provides more value in statistics like blocks. Landry is a good scorer and OK rebounder and good free throw shooter but that's it, no blocks or steals from this guy.

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  7. I am leading my league in blocks, 3pm, and ft%. All the rest I am 5-6th place (except for turnovers). I was wondering if I need to make a trade or I can just wait out Gortat and Bantum slumps and this week Kyrie should be coming back so that should help. Should I try trading dwade for david lee? Should I go to the waiver? I am in H2H 8 team non keeper league.

    My team is:
    Curry
    Wade
    Duncan
    N. Batum
    Ibaka
    George Hill
    Gortot
    Hibbert
    Irving
    Parsons
    Sanders
    Klay Thompson
    Paul George
    Free agents: gordon, amare, wall, bargnani, Kidd, Green, lopez, and stuckey

    Thanks for the help!

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    Replies
    1. Looking at your squad right now you dont have anymore dropable so the waiver wire is out of the question. Im not sure about Gortat this season, as i wrote in the article Gentry just doenst wanna play the guy so try and fine someone who will give u good value for him. In the case of the David Lee for Wade deal i think you should do it. With Curry healthy and Monta ellis gone, Lee is well on his way for a career season, while Wide is on the steady decline. Try and make that move.

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    2. Mo Williams just got dropped, should I try to pick him up? maybe drop George Hill?

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    3. Maybe try to trade hill and wade for hill then pick up williams?

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    4. Also I need to know who to play to night. Everybody except for Batum is playing tonight and I dont know who to bench. probably sanders and gortat/hill/hibbet. I need help!

      thanks

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    5. I'd drop Hill for Moe Williams. Moe has a way better shooting percentage and higher assists. Not sure how many guys you need to bench.

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    6. I need to bench 3 guys. Batum is auto bench because he is not playing. So I need to bench 2 more.

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    7. i'd sit out hill and gortat/sanders. I'm not too sure who's the best choice between those two depends what categories your down on.

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    8. Why is Jason Kidd ranked at number 10 and Kirilino 16 on yahoo fantasy? Both of them FA my league. Should I pick them up? Their numbers don't seem that great so why are they ranked so high?

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    9. And what do you think of Kawhi? I saw he is coming back soon, should I pick him up? if so who would you drop?

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    10. There numbers are great due to their percentages and high value in specific categories, like steals and blocks. although AK47 is an aswesome player, i can't believe he is on your wire. I mean I'd do anything I could to get him into my lineup. Over Kidd and Kawhi.

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    11. Would you drop someone like hibbert for ak?

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    12. No no, id rather you do a 2 for 1 deal in which you get a better player and then pick up AK.

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    13. what do you think of giving up hill and sanders for Westbrook and then I will pick up AK?

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    14. That's a stupid rip off. Do that right away. THE Russel Westbrook? Do this deal right away!

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  8. Should I drop Antawn Jamison for Byron Mullens?

    Thanks for the advice!

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    Replies
    1. I like it. Mullens wont be benched anymore because the Charlotte front court is too thin. He will hurt your FG% a bit but has greater upside than Jamison for board blocks and threes.

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  9. Would you rather have kidd or collison?

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    Replies
    1. Tough call because Kidd has been so surprisingly good. Over the course of an 82 game season though i prefer the young Collinson over Kidd. Don't worry about an ineffective Derek Fisher

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  10. So this is my team
    PG: Rondo, Deron, Wall
    SG: Matthews, Wade, Jordan Crawford
    SF: Josh Smith
    PF: Big Baby, Garnett, Sanders
    C: Howard, Gortat, Monroe

    I'm getting nowhere in FT% mostly because of Howard and Smith so I want to trade out Howard.

    I've been offered Cousins, Lowry and Pierce for Howard and Wade. What do you think about that?
    He then suggested Cousins and Lowry for Wade when I said I didn't want to lose both Howard and Wade but like I said, I want to get rid of Howard and I would like to keep Wade.

    I was also offered joe Johnson and iggy for howard but I think that's a definately no.
    I said I wanted Deng and Johnson for Howard

    What do you think about all the above deals?

    And do you think I should drop anyone (I'm thinking Wall) for a free agent? The main options are ray Allen, MKG, MWP, Thornton, JR Smith, Patterson, Blatche, Hayward, Stuckey, Calderon.

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    Replies
    1. First off, great Jordan Crawford pickup, have him grabbed in a bunch of leagues as well. Second, the best deal by FAR is the first one you mentioned Cousins, Lowry and Pierce for Howard and Wade, it will skyrocket your free throw shooting and you wont hurt in rebounds because Cousins is a beast on the glass. The safest one is Cousins and Lowry for Wade but you're dead set on getting rid of Howard so go with the first trade and drop John wall. Hope this helps!

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    2. But before pulling the trigger wait on the MRI results for Lowry and make sure it's nothing too serious

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    3. Or, I coul take wade for Lowry and cousins and then another swap of Howard for Randolph?

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    4. I offered Howard for Deng and Joe Johnson's and he accepted. What you recon? And if I wanted, I could still do Wade for cousins and Lowry. But who else would you drop apart from wall?

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    5. I dont like the Howard for Deng and Joe Johnson trade so much. JJ is in the tail end of his career and his shooting is poor this season, Would have preferred Howard for Randolph straight up. Do wade for cousins and lowry and drop jordan crawford or sanders

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    6. I could potentially do Howard and big baby for m gasol and al jef. What u recon?

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    7. Thats a great trade. Marc Gasol and All Jeff are solid big men and both of them are better than big baby by a large margin. Make that deal

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  11. G: Paul, Irving, Rivers, Mason, Duhon
    G/F: Hayward, Stevenson
    F: Deng, Barnes, Drummond
    F/C: Zeller
    C: Howard, O'Neal, Perkins

    20 team H2H, standard 8 cats plus A/T
    How can I improve?

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    Replies
    1. I'd look into trading Irving or Paul for a big man and someone else. In a 20 team league you need more depth so try and get a 3 for 1 or 2 for 1 out of someone.

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  12. Should I drop Vucevic for Ed Davis?

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    1. An extra FYI - I'll probably be dropping either of them in about a month to pick up Danny granger or Andrew bogut once more info is released on their returns

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    2. If you need blocks I would continue with Vucevic. Ed Davis is a good player but i'd wait and see what he can do with the minutes, not just one game. Stick with Vuc for now

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    3. Good call. Thanks man

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  13. What are your thoughts on Gortat? Im starting to lose my patience over him. Should I dump him for someone on the waiver like jr smith, Hayward or Stuckey?

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  14. I own Gortat in almost all my leagues and as you can see with my Markieff Morris write up im not too happy with how Alvin Gentry has deployed the big man. But he is certainly not drop-able at this point and his minutes are rising more and more. Once Jermaine O'Neal goes down with another one of his common injuries I think we will be happy that we invested with Gortat. Stay the course!

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  15. BREAKING NEWS KAWHI BACK IN 1 OR 2 MORE GAMES. GRAB HIM NOW IF YOU CAN!

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